Russian and Global Markets of Milk and Dairy Products overview

Milk production in the world and Russia grew in 2023, so what will it be like in 2024?

The global and Russian dairy markets continued to demonstrate growth in milk and dairy production in 2023. This was due to the gradual recovery of the market after the pandemic and the growing demand for dairy products caused, among other factors, by the popularization of healthy lifestyles. But what will 2024 be like for the global and Russian dairy industry?

Key Results of 2023 in the Global and Russian Milk Market

Global raw cow's milk production in 2023 will reach 569 million tons, increasing by about 2% compared to 2022. Thus, the growth trend of this market, which started in 2022, continued. The EU (143 million tons), the USA (104 million tons) and India (99 million tons) hold the leading positions in this market.

The Russian dairy market demonstrated robust growth in 2023. Raw cow's milk production surpassed 33.5 million tons, representing a 3% increase from 2022. This performance positioned Russia as the fifth largest milk-producing country. Notably, the growth in raw milk production has been observed over the past five years. The growth in cow productivity, along with the creation of new livestock breeding and production complexes and the modernization of existing facilities, has contributed to this trend. According to the assessment of Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev, the level of self-sufficiency in dairy products in our country exceeds 85%, and, taking into account supplies from Belarus, it is close to 100%.

Among the positive trends in 2023, it is worth noting the increase in the volume of dairy products exported from Russia, reached 215 thousand tons. In addition to the EAEU countries, the main consumers of Russian-made dairy products were South-East Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. The growth in milk powder shipments was particularly notable, increasing sixfold to reach 20,000 tons.

Imports of dairy products to Russia remained consistent with 2022 levels. Belarus remained the primary supplier of milk and dairy products, with over 5.5 million tons imported in 2023.

Among the most significant challenges currently facing the domestic livestock industry is the volatility in milk prices. While purchase prices for raw materials increased by 13% in January 2023 compared to the same period in 2022 (up to 34-35 rubles per kilogram), they fell to 12-14 rubles per kilogram in the spring and summer period. The decline in demand, resulting from a reduction in disposable income among the population, was compounded by an increase in production volumes and, consequently, overstocking of warehouses. Other challenges include the need to identify alternative suppliers for equipment from companies that have exited the Russian market, as well as the shortage of personnel in some regions.

Trends in 2024 in the Global and Russian Dairy Market

A number of foreign countries are expected to experience a decline in milk production as early as this year. For instance, in Argentina, milk production is projected to decline by 2% in 2024, largely due to the instability of the local currency. The European Union is also likely to experience a reduction in the volume of supplies to the dairy market. The growth in cow productivity does not allow us to overcome the negative effect of a reduction in the number of cows.

According to Lyudmila Manitskaya, Director of the Dairy Union of Russia, this indicator has declined by approximately 100,000 heads annually. To address this challenge, it is essential to collaborate across the livestock sector, scientific communities, and government entities. Let us now turn our attention to the latter in more detail.

Currently, there are a number of measures of state support for livestock breeding and dairy production. The most extensive layer is various preferential loans that allow companies to optimize the costs of current operations and modernize production. In addition, the program of partial compensation of capital expenditures (SAREH) for the construction and modernization of infrastructure, which is managed by the Ministry of Agriculture, provides companies with the opportunity to renew fixed assets. Furthermore, the state provides financial support for scientific research in this field through grants and subsidies.

In general, experts are divided in their assessment of the prospects for the Russian dairy market in 2024. For instance, Artem Belov, Director of Soyuzmolok, anticipates that demand for dairy products and, consequently, the volume of production will continue to grow in 2024. Lyudmila Manitskaya, Director of the Dairy Union of Russia, offers a more conservative outlook, projecting minimal growth in milk production and processing.

Opportunities to Participate in the Dairytech Exhibition

The evolving Russian dairy market is calling for innovative solutions, including those related to equipment and ingredients. Participation in the DairyTech exhibition, the only international industry event, presents a valuable opportunity for you to explore a wide range of potential business opportunities.

The exhibition offers a valuable opportunity to demonstrate your products to potential partners, with 2024 attendance at 3,976 unique guests from 74 regions of Russia and 23 countries. Of these, 66% hold management positions in their companies and have a direct influence on purchasing decisions, making them an invaluable audience for your products.

In addition to these benefits, you will gain access to the latest information on the Russian dairy market, including trends, insights, and market analysis.

You will be able to demonstrate your equipment and ingredients to potential customers at the 23rd International Exhibition of Equipment for Milk and Dairy Production DairyTech, which will be held from January 21 to 23, 2025 (Moscow, Crocus Expo IEC, pavilion 1, hall 4).